Futures:
On Friday evening, LME lead opened at $2,007/mt. During the Asian session, it fluctuated downward. Entering the European session, it continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,994/mt before rebounding to a high of $2,014.5/mt. It then pulled back to the $2,000/mt level for consolidation before the close, ultimately closing at $2,003.5/mt, down $3.5/mt or 0.17%. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,850 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a low of 16,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session, it rose to a high of 16,900 yuan/mt, underwent a slight correction, and then consolidated, ultimately closing at 16,870 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt or 0.03%.
Trump and Putin will hold a meeting in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Beijing's new real estate policy: Families that meet the criteria are no longer subject to purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road. China's CPI in July remained flat YoY and rose 0.4% MoM. On August 8, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun answered questions from reporters. A reporter asked that Trump had indicated that the US might impose secondary tariffs on China due to its purchase of Russian oil. Guo Jiakun stated that China's position on relevant issues has been consistent and clear.
Spot Fundamentals:
In the Shanghai market, Chihong and Honglu lead were quoted at discounts of 30-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, Jijin and JCC lead were quoted at discounts of 40-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2509 contract. SHFE lead was in the doldrums, with suppliers showing significant divergence in their willingness to sell. Quotations in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region remained stable at discounts, while discounts for cargoes self-picked up from electrolytic lead smelters widened. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with relatively better transactions for some heavily discounted cargoes. In the mainstream electrolytic lead regions, quotations were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, or at discounts of 150-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2509 contract. For secondary lead, smelters refused to budge on prices when selling, with secondary refined lead quotations at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works.
Inventory: On August 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,025 mt to 268,375 mt. As of August 7, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,100 mt, a decrease of approximately 800 mt from August 4.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
In the primary lead market, supply and demand are relatively loose. In early August, suppliers' willingness to sell improved, and there is a possibility of wider spot discounts. For secondary lead, factors such as losses and environmental protection are intertwined, leading to significant regional supply differences. Secondary refined lead prices in some areas may continue to be inverted relative to primary lead. On the consumption side, the traditional peak season for the lead-acid battery market has been average, with downstream enterprises cautiously increasing production. Most enterprises will maintain a purchasing-as-needed approach.
